2026年1月[信報專欄] 關注三大領域不畏浮雲遮望眼（孟羽協會主席）-香港中國金融協會

2026年1月[信報專欄] 關注三大領域不畏浮雲遮望眼（孟羽協會主席）

2026-01-02 23:28

<p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:27px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:27px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">當前世界政治經濟中的「浮雲」主要集中在三件事上，分別是中國經濟、美元利率和國際地緣政治。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:0px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">一、市場低估中國經濟韌性，關鍵看地產和消費 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:0px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">2025年中國經濟預估增速為5%，最近5年的平均增速為5.5%，反映出極強的韌性。一是中國推行市場經濟改革四十多年來，當前處於最大一波經濟收縮期，疊加世紀疫情以及地緣政治巨變等，在複雜的巨大逆流中，中國經濟表現出持久的抗衰退能力。二是中國已躍升為科技稟賦和成本優勢驅動的製造強國，產品種類和產業鏈自主配套能力全球首屈一指。三是中國科技創新能力緊跟世界最新科技革命浪潮，整體處於世界先進水準。四是中國出口市場結構獲得根本重塑，從依賴歐美轉向了多元均衡，出口的優勢得以延續和拓展。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">強韌性構成中國經濟持續增長的底氣，而且房地產問題這一不利因素，也在發生積極的變化。近幾年，房地產問題成為中國經濟增長的最大掣肘，其影響廣泛而深遠，不僅在於對投資需求的直接拖累，而且更嚴重的是地方財政收入、資本效率、居民財富效應等受其負面影響，造成對消費需求的遏制，是經濟面臨通縮威脅的主要成因。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">不過，經過近年的有效調控和治理，內地房地產最壞時刻應已過去，持續放寬和全面兜底的政策，為行業構建了一個堅固的信心底。「磚頭經濟」時代一去不復返了，但只要地產不再惡化，中國經濟也就觸底了，當前大機會處在這一臨界點上。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">消費是推動中國經濟持續增長的最大動力，預計2025年對經濟增長的貢獻度高達55%左右。2025年出口雖受惠於結構優化大幅反彈，預計全年增幅接近8%，表現出極強的韌性，但受制於國際收支再平衡和受國際產業鏈重構的影響，淨出口對經濟增長的貢獻度，長期看仍將呈下降趨勢。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">內房走出低谷&nbsp;中國投資復增 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">投資受房地產行業影響，首次出現負增長，雖然伴隨房地產行業走出低谷，2026年也將回歸增長的軌道，但由於投資結構發生了根本變化，投資增幅將長期保持在較低水準。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">綜上所述，未來中國經濟增長的最大潛力依然是看消費，相信2026年受益於政策助力，消費潛力會進一步釋放，推動中國經濟達到5%的增長目標。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">鑑於中國經濟的基本面，港股和A股市場將延續2025年科技股引領的牛市行情，不同的是，波幅將會收窄，熱點將更為分散。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">人民幣滙率方面，受惠於貿易順差持續擴大、國際資本重回中國市場，以及美元減息，人民幣兌美元滙率將重回6算時代，但兌一籃子貨幣將保持基本穩定。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">二、美經濟現實只有減息一條路 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">過去一年多，美減息預期反覆，成為國際金融市場震盪的敍事故事，這一現象在2026年仍將延續。然而，從更宏觀的視角看，長線資金只需錨定美元減息周期的波長和波幅，毋須為聯儲局的短期點陣圖所困擾。市場時不時拿聯儲局與特朗普政府之間的矛盾說事兒，其實兩者只是話語的邏輯不同，最終指向是基本一致的，即美國經濟的現實決定了美國只有減息這一條路。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">從特朗普方面看，「讓美國再次偉大」和「美國優先」論，本質上是通過經濟手段解決美國日益嚴重的國內外問題，其推行的一系列政策諸如關稅戰、脅迫投資、製造業回歸等，是以刺激和擴大需求為宏觀政策導向的美國版「以經濟建設為中心」論，因此寬鬆的貨幣政策無疑成為其不二的選擇，特朗普一方面炫耀其再次上台以來經濟繁榮的成就；另一方面又拿惡化的就業數據說事兒，這看似矛盾的敍事邏輯，實質上反映了他只是把就業數據當作其向聯儲局施壓減息的工具。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">美藉就業數據加快減息節奏 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">從聯儲局方面看，把通脹和就業率作為貨幣政策優先目標，是彰顯其政治正確和獨立性的最佳選擇。不過，美國經濟的現實是長期的結構失衡，造成財政赤字和債務比率嚴重到引發國家信用危機的程度，加上曾經出現史詩級的量化寬鬆政策，對美元信用構成嚴重衝擊，美國面臨財政、債務和貨幣的三重危機威脅。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">其實，以鮑威爾為首的聯儲局理事們很清楚，真正威脅美國的不是短期通脹水平是否可控，而在於若美國經濟陷入衰退、財政狀況持續惡化，美國的債務危機將被提前引爆。而且，中短期內美國發生通脹失控的機率非常小，為應對債務危機，通脹容忍度的逐步抬高，也終將成為無奈的現實。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">由此可見，特朗普政府與聯儲局的博弈其實早就已經找到了一個公約數──就業數據，二者在關鍵的時候都拿就業數據說事兒，最終達成減息的事實和諧。因此，在2026年5月聯儲局決策層換屆之後，擴大和諧成果將是減息節奏的加快而已。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">鑑於減息和特朗普政府發展美國經濟的決心，美國資本市場將繼續保持繁榮。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">三、國際地緣政治階段性和局部風險上升，對市場的擾動將是常態 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">一是中美在經歷了特朗普上台後一年來的全面對抗，摸清了彼此的痛點和底線之後，高強度的系統性對抗將降低，針對性更強的局部對抗會持續，市場反應已鈍化。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">俄烏有望終戰&nbsp;擾動金滙市場 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">二是俄烏戰爭有結束的跡象，會對黃金價格、歐羅和美元滙率造成短期擾動。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">三是在單極世界秩序正被打破、新的世界秩序尚未成形的「亂世」，以及於替代美元為中心的新國際貨幣體系建立前，黃金將延續史詩級的牛市行情。同時，短期美元延續避險貨幣的敍事邏輯，在地緣政治衝突加劇時，表現階段性的強勢，但終究改變不了其長期貶值的趨勢。 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:justify; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">作者為香港中國金融協會主席、太平紳士 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:right; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">本文刊載於香港《信報財經新聞》2026年1月2日, B4頁 <p style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px; background-color:#ffffff; box-sizing:border-box; color:#333333; font-family:-apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,Roboto,&quot;Segoe UI&quot;,&quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;,&quot;PingFang SC&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans&quot;,&quot;Noto Sans CJK SC&quot;,微软正黑体,&quot;Microsoft JhengHei&quot;,sans-serif; font-size:17px; font-style:normal; font-variant-caps:normal; font-variant-ligatures:normal; font-weight:400; letter-spacing:normal; margin-bottom:0px; margin-left:0px; margin-right:0px; margin-top:26px; orphans:2; padding:0px; text-align:right; text-decoration-color:initial; text-decoration-style:initial; text-decoration-thickness:initial; text-indent:0px; text-transform:none; white-space:normal; widows:2; width:auto; word-spacing:0px">蒙信報財經新聞惠允轉載，授權編號：20260102001